The report presents the medium-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, income and environment until 2032. It is based on a set of macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis. Short-term inflation and GDP projections are based on the latest European Central Bank forecast in the short term, while in the medium term, in addition also oil prices, USD/EUR exchange rate, are based on S&P Global and the September European Commission’s forecast. These were updated in November 2022. Population figures were adjusted in a short term outlook and take into account an inflow of people fleeing from Ukraine in 2022 and follows a declining trend in the medium term. The analyses of agricultural markets rely on data that was available up to the end of September 2022 for agricultural production and trade and an agro-economic model used by the European Commission.
As EU Member States have submitted their CAP strategic plans to the Commission, projections take this into account for 2023-2032. However, the level of ambition stemming from various policy initiatives, notably under the European Green Deal and in particular the targets of the Farm to Fork and Biodiversity strategies, for which legislation is being prepared, is not reflected in the presented baseline. Only free trade agreements that had been ratified up to end of September 2022 are considered.
The report is also accompanied by an analysis of a selected set of market uncertainties. Possible variations are due to fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment and in the yields of main crops and milk. Specific scenarios are also presented for extreme weather events and livestock reduction resulting from requirements for high density regions.
An external review of the baseline and the scenarios was conducted at a hybrid outlook workshop organised on 20 October 2022 by the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI), which was led by Franziska Schweiger, Matthias Vancoppenolle and Sabrina Denin. At the workshop, valuable input was collected from high-level policy makers, European and international modelling and market experts, private companies and other stakeholders.
This Commission report is a joint effort between DG AGRI and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), with DG AGRI responsible for the content. As uncertainties on geopolitical macroeconomic developments and trade relations, as well as climate events in the next 10 years remains high, it is important to highlight that the medium-term outlook presents a baseline for any future analytical and scenario work, which would allow testing different development paths.
In DG AGRI, the report and underlying baseline were prepared by Lucia Balog, Piotr Bajek (development of EU farm structures), Paolo Bolsi (macroeconomic environment, agricultural labour and income, food security), Vincent Cordonnier, Andrea Furlan (environmental scenario), Mihaly Himics, Beate Kloiber, Adam Kowalski, Dangiris Nekrasius (sugar, biofuels), Andrea Porcella Čapkovičová (overall coordination, milk, dairy products), Carlo Rega, Alexander Stein (land use, cereals, oilseeds, oilmeals, vegetable oils, protein crops), Jean-Marc Trarieux, Benjamin Van Doorslaer (meats, feed) and Ruben Franco Pescador. DG AGRI’s outlook groups and market units helped preparing the baseline.
The JRC team that contributed to this publication included, for the outlook Christian Elleby, Beatrice Farkas (baseline preparation), Ignacio Pérez Domínguez (technical co-ordination of the baseline work); Simone Pieralli (baseline preparation, extreme weather events scenario); for the environmental scenario, Maria Bielza, Franz Weiss, Thomas Fellmann, Mihaly Himics, Jordan Hristov, Renate Koeble, Peter Witzke, Robert M’Barek and Emanuele Ferrari (food security). Marcel Adenauer and Hubertus Gay from the OECD also provided valuable technical support and expertise.
The text on the oilseed complex for selected Member States was prepared by the AGMEMOD consortium, represented by: Verena Laquai (Thünen Institute) with additional contributions from Martin Banse, Marlen Haß and Max Zirngibl (Thünen Institute), Ana Gonzalez Martinez, Roel Jongeneel and Myrna van Leeuwen (Wageningen Economic Research), Mariusz Hamulczuk (Warsaw University of Life Science) and Edit Varga, Anna Boglárka Éliás, Zsuzsa Molnár and Norbert Potori (AKI Institute of Agricultural Economics).
We are grateful to the participants from the October 2022 outlook workshop and to many other colleagues for their feedback in the preparation of the report.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission.
Fonte: Comissão Europeia