Two JRC science for policy briefs synthesise current knowledge on the links between climate change, conflict, and the security implications of the green energy transition, providing an evidence base to inform policy and decision-making.
Climate change: a driver of conflict?
A growing body of research shows that climate change contributes to conflict risk mainly by amplifying existing vulnerabilities rather than acting as a direct cause. Weak governance, dependence on agriculture, and political exclusion leave communities vulnerable. When climate shocks hit, they erode the capacity to cope with future crises, increasing the risk of violence.
The science for policy brief on Climate Change as a Driver of Conflict reviews over 15 years of research on these indirect pathways. It assesses the strength of the evidence, identifies key knowledge gaps, and highlights significant uncertainties about how these dynamics will evolve as warming accelerates.
The green transition and its impacts on conflict risk
The green energy transition is essential to limit climate risks, but it may also introduce new security challenges. Declining demand for fossil fuels may affect the stability of oil-dependent states, while rising demand for critical minerals raises concerns about localised conflict, human rights abuses in mining regions, and geopolitical competition over supply chains.
The science for policy brief on Security Implications of the Green Energy Transition reviews these risks. While acknowledging the challenges, it emphasises that the risks associated with the transition are much lower than those of a future of unchecked climate change.
Recommendations
Both briefs provide policy-relevant recommendations. These include addressing underlying vulnerabilities that increase susceptibility to climate-related conflict, strengthening multilateral frameworks, improving transparency in mineral supply chains, and supporting fossil fuel-dependent economies in managing the transition.
Background
The 2023 Joint Communication on the Climate and Security Nexus, presented by the European Commission and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, calls for strengthened, evidence-based analysis to support EU planning and decision-making on climate-related security risks. The JRC’s two science for policy briefs contribute to this effort by summarising the current state of knowledge.
Related links
JRC science for policy brief: Climate change as a driver of conflict
JRC science for policy brief: Security implications of the green energy transition
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.