In short
Winter crops across Europe are gradually restarting their vegetative growth under favourable conditions, supported by adequate soil moisture and mild late-winter temperatures in many regions. While excessive rainfall in south-western Europe and parts of eastern Europe in February caused temporary waterlogging and local flooding, impacts on arable crops remain limited so far. Emerging precipitation deficits in north-eastern Europe require monitoring, as crop water demand will be increasing soon.
Winter hardening was generally sufficient, but severe frost episodes in February, particularly in areas with limited snow cover, may have caused local damage in parts of Poland and the Baltic states.
This edition of the bulletin also presents the first quantitative crop yield forecasts for the 2025/2026 cropping season, mostly based on historical trends.
Areas of concern
Excess rainfall caused localised waterlogging and flooding in south-western and eastern Europe
Episodes of abundant rainfall in February and early March led to precipitation totals locally exceeding double the long-term average, resulting in flooding and waterlogging. If drier conditions prevail in the coming weeks, the current elevated soil moisture levels could prove beneficial for the remainder of the season by reducing the risk of drought and mitigating potential heat stress.
- Portugal and southern Spain: Persistent rainfall caused flooding along major rivers, particularly in Andalucía, Extremadura and central and southern Portugal. Waterlogging and temporarily inundated fields have been reported. These conditions have hampered field operations, but only minor impacts on winter crops are expected.
- South-western France: High rainfall totals have led to saturated soils and localised waterlogging, particularly in areas with significant winter cereal production. Impacts on crop state cannot be excluded but have not been confirmed so far.
- South-eastern Romania and eastern Bulgaria: Above-average precipitation has resulted regionally in saturated soils and temporary waterlogging. While no adverse effects on crops have been reported, these conditions may limit field accessibility and require monitoring if wet conditions persist.
The recently drier conditions in all three regions are expected to support soil drainage and improve field accessibility.
Emerging precipitation deficit in northern and eastern Europe
Precipitation has remained below average in several regions during the winter period. While soil moisture conditions are still generally adequate, continued dry conditions may become a concern with the resumption of crop growth.
- Eastern Germany, Poland and the Baltic States: Below-average rainfall has been observed throughout winter and into early spring. Although current soil moisture levels remain sufficient thanks to limited crop water demand during dormancy, rainfall will be needed in the coming weeks to sustain favourable conditions.
At this stage, no impacts are reported, but the situation requires monitoring as crops exit dormancy and water requirements increase.
Above-average precipitation in eastern Türkiye
Above-average precipitation has been recorded during the reporting period. While high soil moisture levels could result beneficial for the forthcoming part of the season, the combined effect of wet soils and reduced radiation has had only minor impacts so far, as winter crops have been still in dormancy.
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Further agricultural information
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O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.