Decline of wine consumption could slow down thanks to the adaptation of the wine sector to changing lifestyles and consumer preferences. As for olive oil, consumption in EU non-producing countries and exports should grow over the outlook period. These are just a few of the projections for wine and olive oil from the European Union agricultural outlook for 2020-30 report published on 16 December 2020 by the European Commission.
EU olive oil production is expected to rise in the next decade, driven by increasing yields. With sustainability and health concerns growing, EU consumption should increase, in particular in non-producing countries. Furthermore, in terms of trade, a strong demand driven by the post Covid-19 recovery should lead to an increase in EU exports.
As for the EU wine sector, it will adapt to changing lifestyles and consumer preferences during 2020-2030. Consumers are expected to favour less alcoholic and sparkling wine, slowing down the decline in consumption. In parallel, other uses such as distillation should increase. Regarding trade, EU exports should be driven by high demand for wine with a geographical indication and sparkling wines. Overall, EU wine production should slightly decline.
Regarding the fruit and vegetables sector, the report includes projections for apples, peaches and nectarines, oranges and tomatoes. The EU apple production is projected to remain stable, with increasing yields but a smaller area. Health awareness and new varieties that better correspond to consumer preferences should help in the growth of fresh apple consumption.
EU consumption of peaches and nectarines is expected to decline due to a stable production as well as competition from other summer or tropical fruits. Exports should increase, especially for processed peaches, thanks to growing global demand.
EU orange production is projected to slightly grow thanks to yield increases. Consumers are expected to favour fresh oranges and fresh juice over concentrates, leading to a decline of demand for oranges for processing. EU imports should increase to cover the demand gap.
Finally EU production of fresh tomatoes is projected to decline as a result of strong international competition and demand growing for smaller-sized-varietes, resulting in a decline in volume but an increase of value added. Consumption of processed tomatoes should remain stable over the outlook period, with a similar shift towards higher value-added products.
The EU agricultural outlook report for 2020-30 contains all relevant market data, accompanied by an explanation of assumptions, and a description of the macroeconomic environment. The projections and scenarios described in the report will be discussed at the annual EU agricultural conference, taking place online on 16-17 December 2020.